Two Billion Reasons to Measure Illicit Share First

Memo lineThe tax-justice coalition says federal estimates of lost tobacco revenue should push Alberta to measure illicit market share before Bill 208 returns.

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Retail tax base

The federal estimate

Health Canada’s strategy report says illegal tobacco represents an estimated 10 to 20% of Canada’s tobacco market and about $2 billion in lost tax revenue each year.

The Alberta entry

AGLC reported first-half 2026 seizures of more than 225,000 cartons with $13.5 million in provincial tax avoidance. Alberta’s tobacco tax page also notes that law-enforcement officers must report contraband tobacco seizures under section 24.2 of the Tobacco Tax Act.

The ask

Alberta now collects seizure reports. Before Bill 208 returns from committee, the province should publish what those reports show about illicit share, product type, and region, so MLAs can judge whether a new restriction would shift more demand off the tax base.

Supporting entries